Why Nicolas Jackson could thrive at Aston Villa despite Chelsea criticism

Nicolas Jackson's finishing has often divided opinion during his time at Chelsea, but a move to Aston Villa could provide the perfect opportunity for the Senegal international to fulfil the potential Unai Emery first recognised at Villarreal.

Villa have been linked with the 25-year-old following Morgan Rogers' club-record move to Chelsea, and while Jackson's goalscoring record has attracted criticism, the underlying numbers suggest there is far more to his game than many observers realise.

Jackson's biggest criticism has centred around his finishing.

During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he converted just 18 of his 61 big chances, leading many to question whether he could ever become an elite striker.

However, analytics tell a different story.

As Brentford owner Matthew Benham recently explained at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, consistently getting into goalscoring positions is often a stronger indicator of future success than finishing alone.

Since the start of the decade, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has recorded a higher non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes than Jackson.

Simply put, Jackson is exceptional at finding dangerous positions.

Jackson's loan spell at Bayern Munich reinforced that argument.

Although he started only 15 matches, the striker still scored 11 goals in all competitions.

In terms of open-play Bundesliga goals per 90 minutes, only Harry Kane posted a better return, averaging 0.79 compared to Jackson's 0.72.

Those figures underline why Bayern boss Vincent Kompany wanted to keep him.

"The guy has not done anything wrong," Kompany said.

"He trained extremely well... when Harry Kane plays in your position, or Michael Olise, or Luis Díaz, it is a bit difficult. There is nothing more."

Former Bayern midfielder Lothar Matthäus also revealed Kompany pushed internally for Jackson to stay, although Chelsea's valuation ultimately proved too high.

Perhaps the strongest argument in favour of an Aston Villa move is Jackson's existing relationship with Emery.

It was under the Spaniard at Villarreal that the striker developed into a player capable of earning his move to Stamford Bridge.

Jackson himself has repeatedly credited Emery for transforming his game.

"Unai taught me everything about football," he said.

"When I was from Senegal, I knew how to play but I did not understand how to run on the pitch.

"I was just running like crazy, taking the ball and just dribbling. He changed all that and made me into a different kind of player."

Emery has also previously highlighted the final area Jackson needed to improve.

"He has to evolve so that his work for the team can be transformed into effectiveness."

Those comments remain highly relevant today.

Despite already possessing significant experience, Jackson only turned 25 last month.

That means there is still considerable scope for improvement under a coach who already understands his strengths and weaknesses.

Compared with experienced forwards such as Ollie Watkins, who recently turned 30, Jackson remains a player whose peak years could still lie ahead.

For Aston Villa, the opportunity to reunite Emery with a striker he helped develop may prove far more valuable than his critics currently appreciate.

Aston Villa continue to assess attacking targets following Morgan Rogers' departure, with Jackson remaining one of the names linked with a move to Villa Park.

Should negotiations progress, Emery would be reunited with a player who believes the Spaniard transformed his career—a relationship that could yet unlock the consistency Chelsea were waiting to see.