Sunderland face familiar Premier League doubts – but should they?

Sunderland exceeded almost every expectation last season.

After winning promotion through the Championship play-offs, Régis Le Bris' side finished seventh in the Premier League to secure European qualification for the first time in more than 50 years.

Yet despite that remarkable campaign, many bookmakers once again expect the Black Cats to be battling relegation.

So are the doubts justified?

One of the biggest concerns comes from Sunderland's underlying numbers.

Although they finished seventh, their expected goals (xG) statistics painted a far less convincing picture.

Only two Premier League clubs recorded a worse xG difference last season, suggesting Sunderland consistently outperformed what their performances deserved.

However, there is important context.

The Black Cats were hit harder than any other Premier League side by the Africa Cup of Nations, losing six players during a crucial period of the campaign.

Once those players returned, Sunderland's performances improved considerably, with their underlying numbers matching those of a comfortable mid-table team.

History suggests surviving a first Premier League season is usually a stronger indicator of future stability than many assume.

Only around one in five promoted clubs that stayed up have gone straight back down the following season.

There are cautionary tales, however.

Ipswich Town famously finished fifth after promotion before suffering relegation the following campaign while balancing European football.

More recently, Sheffield United also failed to build on an impressive first season.

Sunderland will be hoping their own trajectory follows clubs that successfully established themselves instead.

European football presents another unknown.

The Black Cats face at least eight additional matches in the Europa League, testing a squad still adapting to Premier League demands.

History offers mixed encouragement.

While Ipswich struggled with the extra workload, Wolverhampton Wanderers successfully balanced domestic and European commitments after qualifying for the Europa League in 2019.

Much could depend on Sunderland's squad depth and how Le Bris manages player rotation throughout the campaign.

Despite the concerns, there are reasons for optimism.

The club has been widely praised for its recruitment strategy, long-term planning and stability behind the scenes during its rise from League One to European qualification.

Without another Africa Cup of Nations disrupting the squad this season, Sunderland should also avoid one of the biggest problems that affected their performances midway through last year.

If they continue performing at the level shown during the closing months of last season, another comfortable Premier League finish appears well within reach.

Sunderland begin their second Premier League season aiming to prove last year's success was no fluke. A strong start domestically, while balancing Europa League commitments, could quickly silence doubts over whether Régis Le Bris' side can once again outperform expectations.