Arsenal have genuine reasons to believe this title race will end differently

For all the celebration around Arsenal sitting top of the Premier League on Christmas Day, there is an unavoidable shiver of déjà vu. History tells Gunners supporters that festive supremacy is no guarantee of May glory — and recent scars under Mikel Arteta only deepen that unease.

Saturday’s 1-0 win away to Everton, sealed by a Viktor Gyökeres penalty, lifted Arsenal back above Manchester City at the summit. It was efficient, hard-earned, and emblematic of a team that keeps finding a way — even when not at its fluent best.

Yet the headline remains awkward. Arsenal have been top at Christmas four times in the Premier League era and failed to win the title on every occasion, including the last two seasons when City reeled them in with ruthless inevitability.

Arteta, though, insists this team feels different.

“What gives me belief and confidence is the level of performance and the consistency of that,” he said after the Everton win. “That’s very, very difficult to do in this league.”

That belief is not blind optimism. It is rooted in context. Arsenal’s current position has been achieved while navigating an injury list that, in previous seasons, would have derailed their challenge entirely.

Martin Ødegaard missed 11 matches, William Saliba and Bukayo Saka have both had spells out, while Gabriel Magalhães has been sidelined for over six weeks. In attack, Kai Havertz, Gyökeres and Gabriel Jesus were all absent together through much of November.

In earlier title races, those absences would have proved fatal. This time, Arsenal have absorbed them.

Having followed Arsenal closely across the last three campaigns, this is the clearest shift. Squad depth is no longer theoretical — it is functional. Rotation players are contributing, standards are not collapsing when stars are missing, and difficult away games are being ticked off without drama becoming disaster.

Trips to Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland are already in the rear-view mirror. That matters. Arsenal have historically stumbled in these fixtures during title run-ins.

There is also a statistical quirk that favours them: among the six worst home sides in the league this season, Arsenal have faced only one away from home so far. The second half of the campaign may offer more controllable opportunities to bank points.

None of this eliminates the central threat. Pep Guardiola’s City are doing what they always do — gathering momentum. Seven straight wins in all competitions, at least two goals in each, and just two points separating them from Arsenal. This is the familiar shadow looming over north London.

The concern for Arsenal is that recent performances have been tight rather than dominant. Wins over Wolves and Everton were nervy. The cutting edge has not always been there, and emotional strain has crept in earlier than ideal.

That said, the counterpoint is compelling: Arsenal are not yet at their peak — and they are still top.

Arteta has repeatedly suggested that Gyökeres will “go to another level” in the second half of the season as he fully adapts. The numbers support patience. Five league goals is modest, but his physical presence, pressing, and ability to occupy defenders have already changed Arsenal’s attacking profile.

If Gyökeres converts territory into goals at a higher rate after February, Arsenal’s narrow wins could quickly become comfortable ones. In past title races, they lacked that second-half surge. This squad feels built for it.

The sceptic’s view remains valid: Arsenal have been here before, and belief alone does not stop City. But structurally, mentally, and in terms of squad depth, this version of Arsenal is better equipped than any Arteta has previously led.

Is this finally the Arsenal side built to withstand City’s late-season charge — or will history repeat itself again?