West Ham find themselves in the Premier League bottom three at Christmas, facing a significant battle to avoid relegation.
On Saturday, West Ham United were beaten 3-0 by Manchester City, while on the same day Leeds United thrashed Crystal Palace 4-1 to move six points clear of the 18th-placed Hammers.
December has been punishing for West Ham. Leeds United have picked up crucial wins, while Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have failed to win any of their last six league matches, slipping further into danger.
According to Opta’s supercomputer, West Ham currently have a 61.76% chance of relegation. However, historical Premier League data suggests their prospects may not be as bleak as those numbers imply.
Premier League history points towards survival
BBC Sport analysed all 33 Premier League seasons and found that teams sitting 18th at Christmas have survived on two out of three occasions.
| Position at Christmas | Teams | Survived | Relegated | Survival rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th (third bottom) | 33 | 21 | 12 | 64% |
| 19th (second bottom) | 33 | 15 | 18 | 45% |
| 20th (bottom) | 33 | 4 | 29 | 12% |
Source: BBC Sport / Premier League historical data
The data shows that West Ham, currently third bottom, statistically have a 64% chance of survival, significantly higher than teams starting Christmas second bottom or bottom.
Encouragingly, in only four Premier League seasons have all three teams in the bottom three at Christmas been relegated. Conversely, at least one team has survived from the bottom three on 17 occasions, offering further hope that West Ham’s situation is recoverable.
Who could replace West Ham in the bottom three?
As things stand, two promoted sides look capable of avoiding an immediate return to the Championship. Sunderland sit an impressive sixth, while Leeds have climbed to 16th after a strong December run.
West Ham’s escape will likely require help from others faltering. Nottingham Forest, Nuno’s former side, have won three of their last six matches, although they were beaten 1-0 by Fulham on Monday night.
It already appears unlikely that Bournemouth, Brentford or Fulham will be dragged into a relegation scrap, meaning West Ham may need a collapse from either Forest or Leeds to climb clear.
January window crucial
Survival will not be dictated by history alone. West Ham urgently need a clinical striker in January if they are to turn dominance into points, while defensive solidity and consistency must improve quickly.
Without significant reinforcement, the numbers that favour survival could rapidly lose relevance.
Key Insight
- Teams sitting 18th at Christmas have survived 64% of the time in Premier League history.
- Opta currently give West Ham a 61.76% chance of relegation.
- Only four Premier League seasons have seen all bottom-three teams at Christmas go down.
- West Ham’s fate may depend on Leeds or Nottingham Forest dropping off.
- January recruitment, particularly in attack, is essential.
What’s next?
West Ham face a defining January period both on and off the pitch. The club must strengthen in the transfer window while hoping rivals above them lose momentum.
History suggests survival is achievable — but without immediate improvement and smarter recruitment, the Hammers risk becoming the exception rather than the rule.
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