Morgan Rogers calls xG criticism “nonsense” as Aston Villa theory rejected

Morgan Rogers has firmly rejected suggestions that Aston Villa’s strong Premier League campaign is misleading, labelling the growing reliance on expected goals as “a whole load of nonsense”.

Villa’s performances have come under scrutiny this season due to a perceived gap between results and underlying metrics. Despite spending recent weeks inside the top three, Unai Emery’s side rank only 12th in the league for xG — a stat increasingly used to judge attacking sustainability.

Rogers, however, believes the numbers fail to reflect what is actually happening on the pitch.

Expected goals is designed to estimate the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal, based on factors such as distance, angle and historical outcomes across vast datasets. Critics have pointed to Villa’s relatively modest xG output as evidence that their league position may flatter them.

That argument resurfaced after Villa’s recent defeat to Everton. Despite recording an xG of 1.36 compared to Everton’s 0.56, Emery’s side failed to score and missed the chance to climb into second place.

But for Rogers, the reliance on those numbers ignores context — and quality.

Speaking on Sky Sports, Rogers made his feelings clear.

“I think it’s a whole load of nonsense,” Rogers said. “It feels like a crime with xG putting you down.”

The midfielder pointed out that Villa are not taking speculative shots, but making conscious decisions to shoot when opportunities arise.

“If you actually look at the shots we’re hitting, they’re good options to take. We’re not taking pot luck shots. We are well within our right to take those shots, and every team would have taken that shot too.”

Rogers’ comments echo a long-standing theme under Unai Emery, who has consistently encouraged midfielders to be braver in and around the box.

“The manager always said last season, ‘I’m still waiting for goals from the edge of the box’,” Rogers explained. “You can’t always score the perfect goal — from a cross or a tap-in.”

That philosophy has paid dividends. Villa have secured points this season through long-range efforts and moments of individual brilliance, with Rogers himself joined by Boubacar Kamara and Emi Buendía producing decisive strikes from distance.

For Rogers, the repeated success of those moments undermines the idea that Villa are merely riding their fortune.

“On paper the percentages might be against you, but not if you keep doing it,” he said. “There’s got to be a point where if you keep doing it, and it keeps coming off, then this isn’t luck.”

He also highlighted the emotional side of football — something statistics struggle to capture.

“Sometimes when you are in a stadium and you hear people shout ‘shoot’, that’s what fans want.
They want excitement, enjoyment, shots and goals to win games.”

As Villa continue to challenge near the top of the table, Rogers’ stance reflects a wider confidence inside the squad. While analysts debate sustainability, Emery’s players appear content to let results speak louder than algorithms.

Villa will aim to respond on the pitch after missing the chance to climb higher in the table. As scrutiny continues, Emery’s side will look to prove that their results are not only sustainable — but deserved.

Is expected goals overrated when teams keep finding ways to win, or does xG still tell the bigger story?