Aston Villa could be forced into player sales next year to comply with the Premier League’s incoming Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) regulations, according to football finance expert Dr Dan Plumley. The new system, voted in by clubs to replace the current Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR), will come into effect ahead of the 2026/27 season and is expected to place renewed pressure on teams already operating close to financial limits.
The SCR model will cap spending on squad costs — including wages, amortised transfer fees and agent payments — at 85% of adjusted revenue. While seen as a more transparent framework than PSR, the new rules may not offer much relief for sides like Villa, who have repeatedly needed to sell before they could buy under Unai Emery.
Plumley, speaking exclusively to Football Insider, warned that the structural advantage remains heavily skewed toward the league’s richest clubs.
Why SCR could still hit clubs like Aston Villa
Plumley expects a transition period in which clubs adjust to the new model, with the Premier League planning to hold off issuing fines until 2027. But he emphasised that the penalties for non-compliance will be firmly defined and unavoidable. “The penalties are clear… it’s still not going to make huge sweeping changes to the way the finances of English football clubs work, and the biggest clubs will still benefit.” <— Dr Dan Plumley
The core of the issue lies in how SCR calculates adjusted revenue:
- Base revenue
- Plus add-ons
- Plus net player sales
That final category — net player sales — is the area where mid-table clubs and ambitious challengers like Villa may feel most squeezed. If revenue cannot be grown quickly enough, selling players becomes one of the only levers available.
Plumley noted that this reality places Villa in a precarious position during the early stages of SCR implementation, given their strained relationship with PSR in recent years.
The limited impact of SCR on financial balance
While SCR is widely viewed as a tidier, more logical structure than PSR, Plumley argues that its effect on competitive balance will be minimal. Increasing revenue or selling players are the only two meaningful mechanisms to bring squad costs under the 85% threshold — and neither offers an easy route for clubs outside the financial elite.
“If you look at the revenue function… the only way clubs can up that number is to increase revenue across those formats or they start selling more players.”
Both strategies are viable, he added, but neither is simple. For Villa, whose progression under Emery has relied on high-quality recruitment, being forced into sales could disrupt squad building at a time they are pushing for European football.
Point deductions now on the table
One of the most significant developments under SCR is the introduction of points deductions for severe breaches. Under the new framework:
- Spending between 85% and 115% of adjusted revenue results in fines.
- Exceeding 115% can trigger a points deduction, a punishment that has already reshaped the Premier League landscape under PSR.
Plumley believes that while the system marks progress in clarity, the fundamental financial gap remains unchallenged.
“The squad cost ratio is an improvement, but it’s not going to shift the dial… the Premier League are now clear on the transgressions we’ll encounter.”
SCR may deepen the divide before it helps stabilise
In our view, while SCR offers cleaner regulation and a more predictable framework for clubs, it is unlikely to significantly alter the Premier League’s competitive structure. Wealthier clubs with vast commercial revenues will find the 85% limit far easier to manage, while mid-tier sides like Aston Villa may feel forced into a cycle of selling talent to preserve compliance.
Having tracked Villa’s financial posture in recent windows, it’s evident that the club has been operating close to thresholds for some time. Emery’s project has relied on carefully balanced spending, and the new rules introduce another layer of complexity.
There is, however, a nuance worth acknowledging: the clearer penalty system may help clubs plan ahead more effectively, reducing the late-window scrambling that has defined recent summers. If Villa can expand revenue streams — particularly through sustained European qualification — the pressure may ease gradually.
Why a new model doesn’t solve the old problem
While SCR makes accounting less opaque, it does not address the underlying imbalance in revenue distribution. Broadcast shares remain top-heavy, commercial income is self-reinforcing for the biggest brands, and matchday revenue gaps have widened over the past decade.
For Villa, this means the challenge is double-edged: remain competitive on the pitch while maintaining a sustainable financial structure that does not force the sale of core players. It is a delicate tension the club must navigate carefully under the new model.
Key Insights
- New SCR rules cap squad costs at 85% of adjusted revenue.
- Aston Villa may need to sell players to stay compliant under the new framework.
- Penalties include fines and potential points deductions for severe breaches.
- Biggest clubs expected to benefit most due to larger revenue baselines.
- Revenue growth or player sales are the only practical ways to stay under the threshold.
What’s Next?
Aston Villa will begin internal planning for next season’s squad costs early in 2026, with recruitment strategy likely shaped by the club’s SCR projections. Compliance will play a major role in determining who can be signed — and who may need to be sold — as the new rules take hold.
👉 Villa fans — do you fear the new rules will limit Emery’s progress, or can the club navigate SCR without major sales?
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